Christmas Weekend Box Office: From Aquaman's Dive to Migration's Soar

The initial Christmas box office predictions have taken a dip for various movies due to lighter-than-expected Saturday traffic. This shift is attributed to consumers channeling their focus towards holiday preparations and other festive activities. The studios are banking on an upswing in moviegoing once the wrapping paper is discarded post-Monday festivities, although the inconvenience of December 25 falling on a Monday is never a joy for Hollywood studios, as it disrupts the usual weekend flow.

 

In particular, James Wan's "Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom" is anticipated to secure a place among the lowest starts in the history of the DC Cinematic Universe. Projections indicate a modest four-day Christmas weekend gross of $40 million, with $28 million expected over the three days. Despite the less-than-glowing reviews from critics and a lukewarm B CinemaScore from audiences, there's a silver lining – it still has a shot at claiming the top spot.

 

This big-budget tentpole, reuniting Wan with star Jason Momoa, faces criticism and skepticism, signaling a potential shift as new DC leaders James Gunn and Peter Safran prepare to reboot the DC Universe with "Superman: Legacy" in 2025. Momoa himself has hinted at the unlikelihood of an Aquaman threequel. This marks a significant departure from 2018 when the first Aquaman dominated the year-end holiday, earning $67.9 million over the Dec. 21-23 weekend and accumulating a whopping $335.1 million domestically and $1.15 billion globally.

 

The performance of Wan's movie adds weight to the theory of superhero fatigue, even among devoted fans. "Aquaman 2" falls short of the recent $46.1 million opening of the Marvel Studios box office disappointment, "The Marvels."

 

Warner Bros. has a bold presence in the year-end holiday event lineup with not one, but three movies: "Aquaman," "Wonka" (which opened last weekend), and "The Color Purple" (opening on Dec. 25). This feat is even more daring considering two of them are musicals.

 

Adding to the mix for families is Illumination and Universal's "Migration," a theatrical animated fare with an A CinemaScore. Projections suggest it will earn $12.3 million for the weekend from 3,761 theaters and $17.2 million for the four days, surpassing some tracking services' predictions. While overseas performance is currently muted, a projected foreign tally of $22 million from 43 markets through Sunday awaits final validation during the lucrative stretch between Christmas and New Year's.

 

Taking the third spot behind "Aquaman" and "Wonka," the Timothée Chalamet-starrer "Migration" is expected to gross a satisfying $30 million for the four days.

 

Columbia/Sony's edgy romantic-comedy "Anyone but You" is unwrapping a fourth-place finish, estimated at $8.8 million to $9 million from 3,055 theaters for the four days. Starring Sydney Sweeney and Glen Powell, the film earned a B+ CinemaScore, not quite the preferred grade for most studios.

 

A notable gender divide is observed, with nearly percent of all patrons for "Anyone but You" being female. Meanwhile, males make up at least 66 percent of the audience for A24's "The Iron Claw," a wrestling family drama led by Zac Efron. "Iron Claw" is on track to open with $8 million, exceeding initial tracking expectations.

 

On the specialty box office front, Searchlight Pictures is unveiling Andrew Haigh's acclaimed "All of Us Strangers" in four locations in New York and Los Angeles. This awards contender is projected to achieve an outstanding location average of $43,000 for four days, including $33,034 for the three-day weekend – one of the best showings of the year. The final judgment on "Migration" and other holiday releases will unfold during the New Year's weekend, a pivotal period in the moviegoing calendar.